Can Syria Deliver?
Charbel Khouri
UALM – Australia
19/5/03

US Secretary of State Colin Powell’s recent visit to Lebanon and Syria underlined one important factor, and that is Washington is going to be keeping a very close eye on Damascus. Since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq, Syria has been on the receiving end of unwanted US criticism and attention. Syria, being one of the key players in the Middle East has found itself in an unenviable position. With democracy beginning to develop in Iraq, a new unprecedented change is about to sweep through the Middle East and as a result, Syrian President Bashar al Assad will have to ditch his current policies and conform to the new realities in the region.

Will Bashar co-operate? The Secretary of State visited Syria to demand that it start to co-operate with the US on a number of issues. One issue raised was the Syrian occupation of Lebanon. Recently Colin Powell stated 'The fact that Syria is still in Lebanon within the context of a martial law will be discussed extensively with the Syrian leadership’, he has also called the presence of the Syrian Army in Lebanon an ‘occupation’ a word that previous American officials have never used. This marks a clear change in American policy towards Lebanon, something which the Lebanese people have applauded.

While it seems that the Bush Administration is serious about seeing Lebanon free from all foreign forces, the Syrian government on the other hand is not too happy about the idea. In a recent interview with Newsweek, Bashar al Assad stated the ‘presence’ of his army in Lebanon is “related to a peace treaty, to a complete [Israeli] withdrawal.” These remarks confirmed that Syria does not want to co-operate with the US regarding Lebanon. While Assad was adamant that Syria would not leave Lebanon his comments did not win the approval of the National Security Adviser (NSA) Condolezza Rice. In a recent statement she affirmed that "The U.S. policy for a while has been that the Syrian occupation of Lebanon must come to an end," she went on to rebuff Assads earlier claims that Syria will leave according to a comprehensive peace treaty with Israel by stating that “we should not look at this issue as a stage-by-stage operation. What's important is that Syria be ready and willing to end its occupation of Lebanon."

Lebanon feeding two countries! The shift in US policy towards Lebanon will send shockwaves through Damascus. Syria has long benefited from its illegal occupation of Lebanon in more ways than one. Through its occupation of Lebanon, Syria has been able to prop up its ailing economy while effectively sucking Lebanon dry. There are approximately one and a half million illegal Syrian workers in Lebanon. They work for measly amounts and it is not viable for the Lebanese person to work for the same wages as the Syrian due to the fact that the cost of living in Lebanon is high. Therefore the Syrian worker takes the jobs because they are able to offer cheaper labour.

Ever since Syria conquered Lebanon in 1990, all puppet Lebanese governments ever since have signed treaties and agreements with Syria that don’t benefit Lebanon one iota. One case in point is the agriculture industry and its demise due to a flooding of Syrian products on to the Lebanese market. Lebanese farmers leave their fruits and vegetables to rot because Lebanon is forced to import Syrian produce each year because of the quotas imposed on it. The Syrian produce has no tariffs or tax enforced on it, so it’s sold at a lower price than the Lebanese product. Lebanese farmers have long been calling for a level playing field but these requests have been ignored.

Syria not only gains from legal agriculture it also profits from the illegal kind as well. The Plains of the Bekka have been used extensively by the Syrians to grow illicit plants such as hashish and opium. The Syrian government benefits directly through this lucrative market. The selling of illegal drugs brings in much needed revenue for the Syrian economy. If they are not producing the drugs themselves, the Syrians also employ stand over tactics to force a farmer into submission. They allow the grower to continue, just as long as they pay the Syrians a hefty share. There are well-documented stories of what happened to farmers who did not co-operate with the Syrians.

The question that essentially arises is that will Syria be willing to give up Lebanon? After all the economic gains are immeasurable. Well it is not like the Syrians have a choice anymore. Unlike previous US governments the Bush Administration has not employed the carrot strategy and instead has gone straight for the stick. It is imperative that the US keeps the heat on Syria. It is hoped that through diplomatic pressure Syria can be brought to heel. Unfortunately, history tells us that a rogue state that is run by an oppressive regime cannot be trusted. Hopefully this time Syria makes a historic decision and abandons its occupation of Lebanon and all that comes with it. For the sake of peace in the region it is hoped that this time Syria can really deliver.