Who needs a Lebanese guarantee?
By Moshe Zak
Jerusalem Post:  - For years, Lebanon refused to negotiate with Israel on the implementation of Security Council Resolution 425, which called for IDF withdrawal from Lebanese territory. The Lebanese stubbornly insisted that first the IDF should withdraw unconditionally, and only afterwards would they be willing to negotiate other issues.   This week the Lebanese leaders abandoned their precondition. They expressed their opposition to Israel's decision to withdraw unilaterally from southern Lebanon, and presented a series of demands for border correction and return of Palestinian refugees before the withdrawal. What caused this great change in Lebanon's position?
Official experts will explain the change in Syria's position extremely simply: Lebanon is a Syrian province, and the Syrians want to exploit Israel's difficulties in Lebanon in order to pressure it into extensive concessions on the Syrian border. However, it's possible that there is also a non-Syrian motive for the Lebanese government's latest statement. It's possible that Beirut government is worried by the prospect of the Hizbullah being free from terrorist operations against the IDF in southern Lebanon.   The members of the fanatical Moslem organization are liable to follow the example of similar organizations in Algeria and Egypt and transfer their energies to the central government in Beirut, to upset the delicate balance between the different religious communities in Lebanon.
There is no proof that this concern has caused the Lebanese government to oppose an IDF withdrawal from southern Lebanon. The only proof is by historical analogy. In the 1950s French representatives used to pass requests from the Syrian and Lebanese governments to Israel to increase tension on the border. The explanation accompanying these strange requests was that border tension provided the presidents with justification for keeping military commanders suspected of planning revolutions out of the capital, by sending them to the border regions. Lebanese President Emile Lahoud won't reveal his thoughts to anybody. But there is no doubt that he is concerned about how Hizbullah's energy might be let loose at the end of its war with Israel, and so was happy to agree to Syria's instructions to oppose an IDF withdrawal from Lebanese territory. Lahoud and Syrian President Assad have apparently forgotten the days when Syria sought Israel's acquiescence to the red line for the Syrian army deployment in South Lebanon.
Now Syria demands that IDF withdrawal from Lebanon should be conditional on an agreement with Syria in which Israel agrees to give up all the Golan and makes a commitment to return Palestinian refugees from Lebanon and settle them in Galilee. Lebanon obeyed the orders of the rulers in Damascus. The Lebanese leaders spoke in boastful terms that were uncharacteristic of their style and inappropriate to their strength. They announced that if the IDF withdraws unilaterally from Lebanese territory - in other words without an agreement - they could not guarantee the security of residents of the Galilee - as if Israel were relying on their guarantees, and as if the Lebanese army had the power to back up such a guarantee. Of course, there is no point in starting a loud dispute with the Lebanese government along the lines of "blood for blood and child for child." The potential perpetrators of cross-border attacks will be deterred not by inflammatory speeches, but by practical examples.
If anyone on the other side of the border imagines that Israel would be panicked by the warning of the Arab League foreign ministers' conference, and not take preventive steps against terrorism, the Israeli planes that struck terrorist bases 40 hours after the conference's decision proved that Israel is not upset by threats. The move also demonstrated to the Lebanese leaders that they can't rely on Syrian planes being sent into action against Israeli planes to defend Lebanese air space. The bombings of terrorist bases over the border by Israeli planes this week contained a signal to the Lebanese leaders: If after the IDF withdrawal they leave a way open for attacks within Israel, it won't be a one-way street. If Lebanon takes pride in not guaranteeing the security of the Galilee, Israel won't be able to guarantee the security of the Bekaa in Lebanon.
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