Assad confidant: Syria thinks Barak is too weak (14/3/2000)
By David Rudge
Jerusalem Post:  The Syrian leadership is deeply concerned about what it perceives as the "weakness" of Prime Minister Ehud Barak and his government, British journalist and scholar Patrick Seale, a confidant of Syrian President Hafez Assad, declared yesterday.  "The recent first reading in the Knesset of the bill on the public referendum is something which of course worries the Syrians," said Seale. "What was seen as Prime Minister Barak's excessive reaction to the deaths of soldiers in Lebanon with the bombing of Lebanese infrastructure is also seen as a sign of weakness, rather than strength.
"Foreign Minister David Levy's extraordinary outbursts in the Knesset... This, too, is not seen as the language of a country that really wants peace.   "The fact that Prime Minister Barak looks fragile and that his coalition seems to be falling apart - all these are subjects of real concern and worry in Damascus," he said.  Seale spoke to reporters during a conference at Haifa University on "The Peace Process in the Middle East," featuring leading academics and experts from Israel, Jordan, Egypt, the Palestinian Authority, Europe, and the US. 
The British journalist, who wrote Assad's biography, was asked about the Syrian president's health in light of reports he might be suffering from leukemia. "The Israelis have been trying to bury President Assad for the last 15 years, but he's a great survivor. He appeared in public during the recent visit of Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia," said Seale. "He seemed very fit, perfectly able to conduct affairs, and all those around him say that he remains, of course, the ultimate decision-maker and the ultimate source of legitimacy and authority in the state." The three-day conference, cosponsored by Oklahoma University's Center for Peace Studies and Conflict Resolution, is being hosted by Haifa University's Jewish-Arab Center.   Seale, who is to speak today about Syria's position in the peace process, said the whole issue is very delicate and there is a real danger of a deterioration unless some serious misapprehensions and misperceptions on both sides can be rectified quickly.
"Assad, Barak, and US President Bill Clinton all want a deal, but unfortunately the atmospherics surrounding these negotiations are at the moment very bad. It's very important to correct that, to lower the rhetoric and get both sides back to the table," said Seale. "I think the Israelis underestimated the impact on Arab opinion of David Levy's remarks in the Knesset when he screamed about 'blood for blood, a life for a life, and a child for a child.' This is the kind of rhetoric which the Arabs themselves gave up after the 1967 war. "The impact of that on Arab opinion, plus the gross violation of the April [Grapes of Wrath] understandings with the bombing of Lebanese infrastructure, plus Prime Minister Barak's apparent reluctance to get down to the negotiations at Shepherdstown and his refusal to proceed with demarcation of the line of June 4, 1967 - all this has created a very bad atmosphere in the Arab world," he said.
Seale corrected what he said was a misconception in Israel on Syria's position regarding the possibility of an unilateral IDF withdrawal from the security zone in south Lebanon.   "Nobody has said that a withdrawal would be a declaration of war. What people have been saying is that an unilateral withdrawal could easily result in an escalation if there were some cross-border incidents which, in turn, might lead to war," he said. "There is great concern in the region that this chain of events might happen. Everybody hopes, and I'm sure Prime Minister Barak himself hopes, that the withdrawal will take place in an orderly way within the framework of an agreement with Syria and Lebanon."
In the meantime, Seale made it clear that no one could give IDF troops in Lebanon immunity from ongoing Hizbullah attacks. "Nobody, not the Syrian government, the Israeli government, or the public in Israel can protect an occupying force against a national resistance movement," he said. Regarding the prospects of a resumption of peace talks between Israel and Syria, Seale maintained that the "magic formula" had not yet been found. "The longer the interruption in the peace process, the greater the diplomatic effort required to bring the parties to the negotiating table ... Almost everyone agrees that there is no alternative to this peace process and that it would be a tragedy if this historic opportunity was missed," said Seale. "The magic formula for returning to the talks, however, has not yet been found... "I believe that President Clinton is using his famous telephone diplomacy to good effect, but it's still too early to be absolutely certain," he said. Seale addressed the Palestinian issue as well, noting that the stoning of French Prime Minister Lionel Jospin at Bir-Zeit University late last month showed how "the spark of defiance and revolt could fly from South Lebanon to the Palestinian territories." Any further bombardment of Lebanon, he warned, could lead to disturbances, which might again spill over into the territories and inflame the whole Arab world.
"In other words, the message the Arabs wish to convey is that Barak should think very carefully before considering a unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon."  Among the guests at the conference opening yesterday was former Jordanian foreign minister Kamal Abu Jaber, who filled in for Jordan's Prince Hassan. He denied reports in the Hebrew press that Hassan had called off his visit at the request of King Abdullah II, saying it was due to scheduling problems.
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